Bonsall Unified School District prepares for new housing developments

BONSALL – There has been much discussion recently about projected enrollment for the Bonsall Unified School District, the high school in particular. The following facts and assumptions explain the BUSD enrollment projection process.

The district utilizes publicly-available data for housing developments with approved track, parcel, or subdivision maps

Table 1 below displays only the larger housing projects with an approved map and are included in the district's mid-range (five year or less) enrollment projections. These developments have started construction or will "break ground" soon.

There are six small projects (10 or fewer dwelling units) with approved maps not including Table 2 identifies the large number of housing units in the

Ocean Breeze LLC is in the discretionary permit review process and does not require a rezoning amendment to the San Diego County General Plan. BUSD considers such projects long-range planning elements and therefore has not included them in BUSD's current enrollment projections since the housing industry is highly cyclical in nature and, in the event of an industry downturn, these housing projects can easily be placed on hold.

BUSD works closely with the county's Department of Planning & Development Services and housing developers to monitor the progress of projects and will shift the housing development from long-range to mid-range when the project is projected to "break dirt" within five years.

The last group of housing developments are those that require rezoning amendments to the County's General Plan; Table 3. Because of a large amount of uncertainty surrounding these projects the district does not include these developments in the enrollment projections. The district continues to monitor the projects as they move through the development process and General Plan amendment process.

In summary, the only housing projects included in the district's current enrollment projections are those developments with verified, approved plans in which construction has begun or will "break ground" soon.

Based upon the data above, the district has estimated the number of students generated by the new housing units in Table 1. State law requires use of the following calculation "...shall be based on historical student generation rates ("SGRs") of new residential units constructed during the previous five (5) years of a type similar to that of the Future Units."

Bonsall USD has not experienced any sizable housing developments in the past five years. Therefore, BUSD looked to other similar school districts to identify the number of students generated by recently completed housing developments. As a result, the district is using a student generation rate of .871 for single family homes and .411 for multi-family , or an average student generation rate of .75 for calculating current enrollment projections. This figure is updated annually based upon available data.

Submitted by Bonsall Unified School District.