SD County removed from state virus watchlist, schools could reopen as early as Sept. 1

San Diego County was taken off the state of California's coronavirus watchlist Aug. 18, but Fallbrook continues to report an increase of a few dozen more coronavirus cases, according to county data.

The 92028 ZIP code, which also includes the communities of De Luz and Rainbow, now has 389 total coronavirus cases as of Monday, Aug. 17, and 0.7% of the area's population has tested positive for the virus.

That's an increase of 44 new cases since the previous week, when ZIP code 92028 recorded 345 coronavirus cases.

The area, previously one of the least affected by the virus, began recording an uptick in

infections in June, and has been roughly in the middle of the county's distribution of coronavirus

infection rates since then.

Last week, the 92028 ZIP code had the 37th highest coronavirus infection rate in San Diego

County, and the 43rd lowest. Since then, it has gone up by one slot – 92028 now has the 36th highest coronavirus infection rate in the county and the 44th lowest.

Nearby Bonsall's 92003 ZIP code reported only one more coronavirus case Monday than a week before, for a new total of 36 cases. The county still cannot estimate an infection rate for

Bonsall because of the low number of cases and low population.

Meanwhile, after six straight days of San Diego County public health officials reporting a case rate of fewer than 100 positive COVID-19 tests per 100,000 people, the county finally found itself off the state's watchlist Aug. 18, setting in motion a 14-day countdown that could see K-12 students back in the classroom as soon as Sept. 1, depending on the guidance of individual school districts.

Gov. Gavin Newsom had said Aug. 17 it was "very likely" the county would come off the state's monitoring list by the following day.

"This is a dynamic list. People come on, people come off, the numbers shift every single week," Newsom said Aug. 17. "I anticipate this week the numbers to shift again and it looks like, all things being equal and the latest reporting period – 24-hour reporting period, which we will have later this evening – it's very likely San Diego will join the list of those counties removed. So, likely tomorrow."

The move's effect on businesses was unclear. The county was expecting some guidance from the state in that area later Tuesday.

The county will be placed back on the list should it be flagged for exceeding any one of six different metrics for three consecutive days. Those metrics are the case rate, the percentage of positive tests, the average number of tests a county is able to perform daily, changes in the number of hospitalized patients and the percentage of ventilators and intensive care beds available.

The county reported a rate of 89.9 positive cases per 100,000 people, along with 282 new positive cases Monday, raising the region's total to 34,960 cases. No new deaths were reported and the total number of deaths remains at 626.

Of the state's 58 counties, 41 remain on the state's monitoring list, with Santa Cruz County falling off Friday.

Previously, county and state officials had said if the rate stayed below 100 per 100,000 people for three consecutive days, the county would officially be removed from that list. After an additional 14 consecutive days below that number, K-12 schools could potentially reopen for in-person teaching.

If the county can maintain a case rate below 100 per 100,000 for those 14 days, students could theoretically be back in school by as early as Sept. 1, depending on individual school district metrics.

Some 48 elementary schools have filed waivers with the county to return to school early.

"Once we come off the state monitoring list, we must keep the vigilance we've been showing," county Supervisor Nathan Fletcher said. "This is not a finish line but a midpoint in a marathon."

Last month, the county announced it was reformatting its testing priorities to focus more on vulnerable populations such as those over the age of 60, those with underlying medical conditions and first responders. It is unclear if the scope of the reported testing and rapidly declining case rates in the past several weeks is showing a true picture of the pandemic's spread throughout the community, particularly as community outbreaks continue to be

the only county metric still flagged as "abnormal."

County health officials reported two new community outbreaks Monday, bringing the number of outbreaks in the past week to 21 tied to 96 cases. The latest outbreaks were reported in a grocery store and a grocery/retail setting, according to the county Health and Human Services

Agency. The county continues to keep the names and locations of businesses with outbreaks secret.

The number of community outbreaks remains well above the county's goal of fewer than seven in a seven-day span. A community setting outbreak is defined as three or more COVID-19 cases in a setting and in people of different households in the past 14 days. The county has recorded 48 community outbreaks tied to 250 cases of the illness in August.

As a record-setting heat wave continues to roast Southern California, county Supervisor Greg Cox reminded residents Monday that socially distanced county "cool zones" would be available at least through the duration of a weather advisory – set through Thursday at 10 p.m. People visiting cool zones are required to wear masks when inside, and county staff will take temperatures at the door. A map of the cool zones can be found at http://Coolzones.org.

Of the 6,377 tests reported Aug. 17, 4% returned positive, maintaining the 14-day positive testing rate at 4.3%, well below the state's target of 8% or fewer. The seven-day rolling average of tests is 7,890 daily.

Of the total positive cases in the county, 2,868 – or 8.2% – have required hospitalization since the pandemic began, and 716 – or 2% – were admitted to an intensive care unit. Just 271 people are hospitalized from COVID-19, and 97 are in intensive care, a dramatic drop-off from even a week ago.

Latinos are still disproportionately impacted by COVID-19, with that ethnic group representing 62% of all hospitalizations and 45.7% of all deaths due to the illness. Latinos make up about 35% of San Diego County's population.

A new COVID-19 testing site began operating recently at the San Ysidro Port of Entry PedEast crossing, and Cox cited its immediate success and demand for it.

The free testing site will operate from 6:30 a.m. to noon Monday through Friday and will focus on testing essential workers and American citizens who live in Tijuana, according to San Diego County health officials.

No appointments are necessary at the walk-up site, which aims to offer about 200 tests daily. People getting tested will not be asked about their immigration status or who lives with them, health officials said.

"We know that communities in South Bay have been hit the hardest by COVID-19," Dr. Wilma Wooten, county public health officer said. "The location was selected because of the increase in cases in the region and the number of people, especially essential workers who cross daily."

Will Fritz can be reached by email at [email protected].