Also serving the communities of De Luz, Rainbow, Camp Pendleton, Pala and Pauma

Secede from the county?

When the Fallbrook/Bonsall area excels, for example by succeeding in the war against the virus as compared to the county as a whole, it would be nice to see those statistics reported in this, our local newspaper, if nowhere else. Up until and including the Oct. 8 issue, I could always find the number of new cases reported for our two ZIP codes: 92028 and 92003.

However, the last two issues failed to report the local counts that contribute to these very important metrics, which have been dropping steadily since July in our area.

I looked up the total number of cases that have accumulated for Fallbrook, Bonsall, and the county in general on the HHSA website as of the morning of Oct. 24, so that I could fill in the missing information for the readers of this paper.

Before I get to the numbers and the calculations, let me explain why you should care. Mainly, it is because San Diego County as a whole is very close to toppling over the edge and falling into the dreaded purple tier.

But instead of taking action to identify locations with higher than average virus transmission rates, and shutting down activities that are spreading the virus, our elected officials talk about suing the state if it declares (as it is about to do) that the county as a whole needs to be hammered with the restrictive purple tier.

Can you imagine? Lawyers representing both sides (all paid for by you and me) battling it out in a courtroom (paid for by us) before a judge. bailiffs and clerks (on salaries furnished by taxes); instead of examining the wayward ZIP codes to see what precise activities need to be shut down to avoid the state shutting down the whole county, including Fallbrook.

Here are the statistics: The Oct. 8 issue reported the following coronavirus accumulated totals (as of Oct. 4): Fallbrook – 558 cases, Bonsall – 45 cases (for an area total of 603 cases), San Diego County as a whole – 48,436 cases. HHSA reported on the Oct. 24: Fallbrook – 613 cases, Bonsall – 50 cases (totaling 663), San Diego County – 54,314.

Subtracting, we find that the Fallbrook/Bonsall area experienced 60 new cases in the 20 days, while the county registered 5,878 during the same period.

Although the standard to remain in the less restrictive red tier is seven cases per 100,000 per day, it was reported a few days ago by KPBS that, even though the week of Oct. 4 through 10 saw that metric at 7.8 in this county, the state adjusted it down to 7 (they let us slide) by taking into account other data. OK, so what happens next?

The population of the county is estimated to be 3.35 million, so its new cases (5,878) need to be divided by 33.5 to find the amount per 100,000. Then divide by 20 days. The result? 8.8 – way above 7.0. The governor is gonna be mad.

How about Fallbrook/Bonsall? Our area reportedly has a population of 52,500. Dividing 60 by 0.525 yields 114.3, which is also divided by 20. The result? 5.7. One-third less spreading of the virus here than there! If we were a separate county the governor would give us a medal – but we are not. Looks like we are about to get hammered together with the virus spreaders to our south.

But then again, if we were to secede ...

Jeffery Jones

 

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