Real Estate Round-Up: How migration affects Fallbrook

I recently participated in an Economic Throw Down Discussion. The participating panelists came from across California. There were housing analysts, mortgage analysts, educators and real estate economists. There was one topic that truly piqued my interest because it resonates with real estate in Fallbrook.

It’s the topic of migration. Migration can be outbound which generally occurs when homeowners leave California. Migration can also be inbound from one area of California to a different area of California.

California has experienced 819,000 Millennials and Gen-X residents leave the state and 611,000 Baby Boomers leave the state so far this year. That’s a huge number. So, how is this impacting Fallbrook?

Let’s start with a few of the reasons people move. Historically people move for jobs; they move for schools, and they move for lifestyle. COVID-19 has shuffled the deck. Jobs are the top reason that the Millennials and Gen-Xers are leaving, but financial security tops the list for Baby Boomers.

Lifestyle has taken over in spot #2. Schools moved into third position, as children participate in on-line schooling, with parents as the teachers. Curriculum for K through 12 is state mandated. In the past, test scores, educational and extra-curricular programs, and sports were reasons people would move into a particular school district.

With most of the programs inactive, parents can choose to live wherever the best overall lifestyle is for their family and continue to educate their children from that new location.

In Fallbrook, we regularly work with sellers, who are Baby Boomers. They are leaving California to find a community where they have greater financial security. They look for communities that have low taxes, less expensive housing costs, and decreased overall expenses for utilities, vehicles, food, and supplies.

This year, we have also worked with many younger couples and families that are migrating out of Fallbrook to find a more affordable place to raise their family. They need better job opportunities, less expensive housing, better schools and less expensive costs for utilities, vehicles, food, and supplies. Once you get out of California, most schools have returned to in person learning, so the specific school district is once again important.

Fallbrook has always experienced inbound migration, but this year the inbound migration has grown to include people from coastal San Diego County communities and cities outside of California that are experiencing a decline in lifestyle due to unrest or unhealthy conditions.

Homelessness, which was a top tier topic prior to COVID-19, remains a concern for many people who live in more congested areas. The unrest that has existed in the Pacific Northwest, has caused many of the occupants to look for a safer place to call home, and certainly Fallbrook provides that. A common desire is to be able to live in a place that feels safe.

Baby Boomers have always chosen Fallbrook, first and foremost for the cost of housing. Compared to most every community, even in San Diego County, Fallbrook is extremely affordable. California’s median home price is over $700,000. Fallbrook’s is $634,000. Add to that disparity, the quality of home and land you get when you move to Fallbrook and it’s an easy decision if you’re close to retirement or already retired.

This affordability and lifestyle are now attracting people of all ages. With many workers still telecommuting, the ability to work at home has opened the door to living where you choose, not living as close to work as possible.

The quality of property in Fallbrook is the next big attraction. Homes are larger, primarily single story, and mostly on larger parcels. Even Fallbrook’s traditional neighborhoods like Peppertree Park and Shady Grove have homes on parcels that are small by Fallbrook standards, but gigantic when compared to L.A., Orange County, or coastal properties. The single story is attractive because it projects the ability to live in the same home as people age or provide living space for retired parents who live with their employed children.

Larger homes often include office space or the potential for a private workspace or home school area for the children. When you consider that COVID-19 has kept children home for virtual schooling and parents home for work, a larger home provides the space to accommodate both those needs.

Many buyers are a blend of retired grandparents and working couples who decide to combine their assets and income so they can purchase a larger home in a community that supports that lifestyle. One in six homes is selling to a multi-generational family group. You can’t find affordable homes in L.A., Orange County or coastal California that are large enough to house multi-generational family groups.

Larger parcels provide the opportunity to enjoy the outdoors, all within the confines of your own fenced yard. There is a “Baby Bust” occurring throughout the state. Childbirth is down. Only 33% of this year’s buyers have children under the age of 18 living with them.

Pet ownership, however, is up. A larger parcel provides room for pets. An employed person doesn’t need to worry about finding a dog park or a dog walker to exercise their pet. They can live happily in their large yard, while their “parents” work.

Larger parcels also provide a financial opportunity beyond employment income, by virtue of the ability to add an ADU (accessory dwelling unit). As our lifestyles have been forced into change, our needs have changed. Fallbrook property checks a lot of boxes for most homeowners.

So, what’s the bottom line? Your neighbors, or possibly you, will decide to sell your home and move to a more affordable, more safe community outside of Fallbrook and California. You have watched and lived through the dramatic changes in our beautiful state. You want what used to be, and that can’t be found in California, so you look elsewhere.

Other people will be moving to Fallbrook, for all the reasons you are leaving, because the perception starts from where you are, not from where you’re going. Living in a congested community, where housing costs and taxes have steadily risen, and quality of life has continued to decline makes Fallbrook look pretty sweet.

We look forward to helping those of you who decide to sell and leave Fallbrook. We will welcome the new residents, and hope that they immerse themselves in this wonderful village, so we can preserve the unique lifestyle Fallbrook has to offer.

Kim Murphy can be reached at [email protected] or 760-415-9292 or at 130 N Main Avenue, in Fallbrook. Her broker license is #01229921, and she is on the board of directors for the California Association of Realtors.