Coronavirus pandemic continues to accelerate locally

San Diego County is continuing to report record numbers of coronavirus cases, and the Fallbrook area remains just as affected by the accelerating pandemic.

The weekly average case rate for the 92028 ZIP code – which also includes De Luz and Rainbow – was 12.2 cases per 100,000 for the most recent week available, Nov. 11-18. The case rate had been 8.2 cases per 100,000 the week before that.

There were 42 new positive coronavirus cases in 92028 between Nov. 11-18, reflecting a 6.6% positivity rate and a significant jump from the 28 new positive cases reported during the previous week.

The numbers look even worse in the county’s Fallbrook “jurisdiction,” which is a smaller section of the 92028 ZIP code that includes just the smaller Census-designated place definition of Fallbrook. That jurisdiction was reporting a case rate of 19.7 per 100,000 between Nov. 11-18, according to county data, having reported 14.0 cases per 100,000 the week prior.

The state’s threshold for purple tier status is a daily COVID-19 case rate of 7 or more, so if Fallbrook were in a county unto itself, it still would likely be facing the increased restrictions of the purple tier, which San Diego County backslid into Nov. 14.

County data show a total of 786 coronavirus cases in the 92028 ZIP code since March – the vast majority of those cases are not currently active as they were reported earlier in the pandemic.

But the pandemic remains a growing threat. In the wider county, health officials reported 1,802 new coronavirus cases on Nov. 28, marking the 17th consecutive day that more than 600 new cases were reported.

The county's death toll remains at 996.

A total of 21,671 tests were reported Nov. 28 and 8% of those came back positive, bringing the 14-day rolling average of positive tests to 5.5%, according to San Diego Public Health Services.

Of the total number of cases in the county, 4,544 – or 5.8% – have required hospitalization and 1,015 patients – or 1.3% of all cases – had to be admitted to an intensive care unit.

A total of 10 new community outbreaks were confirmed Nov. 28, though information regarding what types of locations they occurred in was not available.

Over the previous seven days, 82 community outbreaks were confirmed. A community outbreak is defined as three or more COVID-19 cases in a setting– and in people of different households over the past 14 days.

San Diego County fell deeper into the most restrictive purple tier of the state's four-tiered reopening plan Nov. 25 with an unadjusted 21.5 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people. Even with an adjusted rate of 13.1 per 100,000 due to significant testing increases by local health authorities, that number far exceeds the strictest tier's baseline of seven daily cases per 100,000.

The testing positivity percentage is 3.1%, placing it in the less restrictive orange tier for that metric.

The county's health equity metric, which looks at the testing positivity for areas with the lowest healthy conditions, is 9.3% and is in the purple tier. This metric does not move counties to more restrictive tiers but is required to advance to a less restrictive tier.

Will Fritz can be reached by email at [email protected].