National Weather Service week ahead for San Diego County

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA

901 AM PDT TUE AUG 2 2022

SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SAN BERNARDINO

MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES

DECREASE FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE FOR THE DESERTS

EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE

AT ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...

SAN DIEGO...WESTERN Riverside AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO

COUNTIES...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:

*ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON.

*INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH

FLOODING THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

*ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE DRIER TODAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER

ON THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING DOWN TO 1.69 INCHES FROM THE 1.75 INCHES

YESTERDAY.

DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DOWN 5 TO 10 DEGREES

COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WHILE THERE IS

A LITTLE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TODAY, THERE SHOULD STILL BE

ENOUGH MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY IN SAN

BERNARDINO COUNTY.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SHOWING EVEN LESS

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY, WITH FURTHER DECREASES IN

PRECIPITABLE WATER. FOR THURSDAY, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL

INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL

AND FLASH FLOODING. THE LOCAL NAM-BOUNDED WRF SHOWS DEVELOPMENT ON

THURSDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES IN THE

MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH DESERT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE FROM WEST TO

EAST WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES

AND PLAINS BRINGING THE FLOW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE

SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THUNDERSTORM

CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES AND OCCUR AT

OTHER TIMES OF DAY.

NBM CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR BIG BEAR

REMAIN HIGHEST ON MONDAY. NBM SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE STEADILY

FOR THERMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, PEAKING AT 74 ON MONDAY

MORNING, SO IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID IN THE LOWER DESERTS

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MOST DAYS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS

WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST. THE

MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER NIGHTS

AND COOLER INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE

MOUNTAINS, DESERTS, AND INLAND VALLEYS 5 TO LOCALLY 10 DEGREES

BELOW AVERAGE. NBM SHOWS AN 18 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THERMAL NOT TO

HAVE A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 OR MORE FOR NEXT MONDAY.

.AVIATION...

021530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...VERY PATCHY STRATUS THIS MORNING IS ALMOST

GONE EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE COAST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY, AND JUST

OFFSHORE. ANY BASES NEAR 1,000 FT MSL MAY AFFECT THE BEACHES THROUGH

MIDDAY, BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS ANY MORE THIS

MORNING. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES REMAINING NEAR 1,000 FT MSL

REDEVELOPING AFTER 06Z WED, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY CIGS

AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS

AT/ABOVE 10,000 FT MSL.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AT/ABOVE 10,000

FT MSL THROUGH TONIGHT. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND

HIGH DESERT AFTER 19Z THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CB BASES NEAR 10,000 FT

MSL AND TOPS TO 35,000 FT MSL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND

REDUCED VIS VCTY TSRA.

MARINE...

SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM FRANK WILL PEAK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH

COMBINED SEAS UP TO 6 FT AT 12-15 SECONDS. SEAS WILL LOWER THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

BEACHES...

A 4-5 FT SOUTH SWELL FROM 180-200 DEGREES AT A PERIOD OF 12-15

SECONDS WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 4-7 FT, MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-

FACING BEACHES. EXPECT STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS AT ALL

BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST SURF WILL BE IN NORTHERN ORANGE

COUNTY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON.

SKYWARN...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE

ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE

COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.