NEW JERSEY – On May 19, MacroMarkets LLC announced that, according to its new monthly survey, the onset of price recovery in U.S. single family real estate is widely expected by 2011, and home prices will increase by more than 12.4 percent between 2010 and the end of 2014.
The survey also revealed that home prices nationwide are expected to have risen 4.9 percent in the 12-month period ended March 2010, but fallen 0.4 percent during the most recent quarterly period measured. These conclusions reflect an average of the 92 responses received during the first half of this month from an expert panel of more than one hundred economists, housing analysts, investment and market strategists.
“The survey results are important because they represent a consensus view among experts with rich and diverse knowledge. In the May survey they see only the slightest hint of a downdraft in home prices this year, and after that a respectable uptrend in prices, well ahead of the likely inflation rate,” said Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and Chief Economist. “However, there were a number of panelists more or less sanguine than average, some significantly so, and this reflects continuing volatility and risk in the U.S. housing market. The expectations within this first survey were provided following the end of the homebuyer tax credit and of the Federal Reserve’s $1.25 trillion mortgage-backed securities purchase program. It will be interesting to see how panelist views evolve in future months.”
Despite its importance, concrete information and authoritative opinion regarding expected future home prices has tended to be sporadic and diffuse. This survey is intended as one means to address this dearth of useful information. The MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey is based upon the projected path of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. This index is updated quarterly by Standard & Poor’s.