Inland Empire braces for El Nino; authorities say Riverside County infrastructure likely to fail under heavy onslaught of rain

RIVERSIDE COUNTY - The storm activity that El Nino is expected to spawn this winter could pose a risk to bridges and roads throughout the Inland Empire, and despite efforts to mitigate problems before they occur, it’s doubtful “we can prevent” infrastructure failures, a state official said.

“When the water starts moving swiftly through those arroyos, and we start seeing flash floods, infrastructure will be damaged,” California Office of Emergency Services Director Mark Ghilarducci said.

Ghilarducci was joined by Bob Fenton, administrator for the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s western region, and Todd Morris of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in a telephone briefing on the actions by a federal-state task force to prepare for the storms ahead.

“This El Nino is certainly underway,” Morris told reporters. “It has reached the strong category. It’s going to be very similar to the 1997-98 event

in strength — and very possibly may exceed that strength.”

Benton said the task force had been working with local and state agencies from California, Arizona and Nevada, laying out a plan based on a “whole community” approach.

“There are increased risks of flooding because of drought conditions and the wildfires,” Benton said. “Citizens need to take individual preparedness seriously. Understand the risks of where you live. Know what to do before, during and after a disaster.”

When asked specifically how torrential rainfall could impact travel arteries, pointing to the July collapse of the Tex Wash bridge on Interstate 10 — which shut down a 44-mile stretch of one of the most vital east-west corridors in the country — as an example.

“It’s a good observation, because that was a strong infrastructure bridge. It was modern and had been checked,” Ghilarducci said. “We’re trying to look at as many of these locations as possible to do some mitigative work to minimize flash flood erosions that may take place.

“With the I-10 bridge, it was one storm, a heavy cell, and a lot rain came down,” he observed. “We can see the damage it did. In different parts of the state, there will be different impacts from the flooding. We’re concerned and trying to do as much mitigation as possible. But I’m not sure if we can prevent that realistic problem throughout the region.”

According to Morris, the past month’s heavy rains across Texas, Oklahoma and neighboring Plains states were directly attributable to the El Nino identified last spring. The NOAA forecaster also credited the weather phenomenon with the unseasonably elevated temperatures in the northern tier of the country.

“Detroit had its warmest November since 1874,” he said.

El Nino is marked by higher than average water surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, stretching to Central and South America.

Morris said the warmer water acts as a “storm production” trigger that will hit its peak around mid-winter.

“We’ll see the biggest impacts in January, February and March,” he said.

As part of the task force briefing, FEMA released an Executive Decision Support Guide highlighting the various scenarios that might ensue due to the “severe El Nino event.”

The compendium drew on data from past El Ninos to estimate possible outcomes in the upcoming one.

Inclement weather persisted for days on end during the 1997-98 cycle, the worst of which was in February.

“According to California Department of Water Resources, the state overall received 320 percent of average in the month of February alone,” according to the report. “The heavy rains exceeded 500 percent in parts of Southern California’s coastal counties, from Santa Barbara to San Diego.”

California suffered $883 million in damage, most of it agricultural, during the winter of 1998. Seventeen people died in storm-related accidents, more than 6,600 homes were damaged, and 40 counties were declared federal disaster areas, according to FEMA.

The 1982 El Nino was nearly as bad, with mudslides, flooded neighborhoods and a tornado in South Los Angeles, according to the agency.

Ghilarducci said burn-scarred areas are at the highest risk for “land movement,” including dirt and mud flows. He said the one upside to the four-year drought is that reservoirs are extremely low, making it unlikely that they’ll overflow and flood places that would otherwise be submerged.

Benton recommended that people visit http://www.floodsmart.gov or other sites to determine whether they’re in a flood plain. He said that in the last couple of months, 7,100 new flood insurance policies were written in the southwest region.

“It takes 30 days to record a policy, so don’t wait around,” the FEMA administrator said.

Morris emphasized that flooding and soil disturbances are not always the result of sudden downpours, but “light rain that continues for several days.”

The Riverside County Board of Supervisors last month approved a local State of Emergency to preemptively assemble resources and allow for storm-related preparations in unincorporated communities.

The 1997-98 El Nino produced more than 30 inches of rain countywide over a five-month span. Most areas of the county have received less than 20 inches of rain over the last three years, according to climate data.

More information on how individuals can prepare for storms is available at www.ready.gov andhttp://www.rvcfire.org/ourDepartment/OES/Pages/Citizen-ReadinessPreparedness.aspx .